Uyarılar, Tantagas

Tropical Cyclone Alert : Tropical Storm Nika (TORAJI) (FINAL) No public storm warning signal is in effect in any part of the country.

Tropical Cyclone Alert : Severe Tropical Storm Ofel (USAGI) “OFEL” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA. Location of eye/center : The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data at 780 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (14.1, 131.4). Strength : Maximum winds of 95 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 115 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move West Northwestward at 30 km/h kph Forecast position : Nov 12, 2024 08:00 PM - 735 km East of Virac, Catanduanes Nov 13, 2024 08:00 AM - 590 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte Nov 13, 2024 08:00 PM - 395 km East of Casiguran, Aurora Nov 14, 2024 08:00 AM - 205 km East of Echague, Isabela Nov 14, 2024 08:00 PM - Over the coastal waters of Aparri, Cagayan Nov 15, 2024 08:00 AM - 100 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan Nov 16, 2024 08:00 AM - 140 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes Nov 17, 2024 08:00 AM - 225 km North of Itbayat, Batanes HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook   Refer to Weather Advisory No. 20 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone “OFEL”   Severe Winds   Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be raised over portions of Cagayan Valley this late evening or tomorrow early morning. The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of OFEL is Wind Signal No. 4. Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Tropical Storm OFEL will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Tomorrow (13 November): Catanduanes Thursday (14 November): Quezon and the northern portions of Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Friday (15 November): The eastern portion of Isabela and the northern portion of Aurora Coastal Inundation   There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak surge heights of 1.0 to 2.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of eastern mainland Cagayan, Isabela, and northern Aurora. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 1 issued at 2:00 PM today for the details. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook   Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 3.0 m:The western seaboard of Batanes and Babuyan Islands; the seaboard of Ilocos Norte. Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and Ilocos Region; the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan, the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes. Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Cagayan Valley, the western seaboard of Zambales; the seaboards of northern Aurora and Kalayaan Islands; the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar. Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK OFEL is forecast to move west northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the east coast of Cagayan or Isabela on Thursday (14 November) afternoon or evening. It will then emerge over the Luzon Strait, turn more northwestward on Friday (15 November) while slowing down before behaving erratically during the weekend.  Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. It must also be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the 4th and 5th day of the forecast track. In particular, two scenarios are emerging: a west northwestward track with a land crossing that is further south of the present scenario and a recurving track to the right of the present forecast which will bring the OFEL mainly offshore of Northern Luzon. Given these, further changes in the track forecast is expected. This tropical cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify in the next three days and reach typhoon category tomorrow (November 13) afternoon or evening. OFEL will possibly make landfall at peak intensity.