Uyarılar, Aola

Tropical Cyclone Alert : Tropical Storm Ofel (USAGI) “OFEL” HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM AND HAS RE-ENTERED THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEST NORTHWEST OF BATANES. Location of eye/center : The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data at 220 km West Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (21.8, 120.0). Strength : Maximum winds of 85 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 105 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move Northward at 10 kph Forecast position : Nov 16, 2024 08:00 AM - 225 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Pingtung County, Taiwan Nov 16, 2024 08:00 PM - 235 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Taitung County, Taiwan Nov 17, 2024 08:00 AM - 280 km North of Itbayat, Batanes Nov 17, 2024 08:00 PM - 365 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook   Tropical Storm OFEL is not expected to bring significant rainfall in any part of the country. However, Weather Advisory No. 39 has been issued at 11:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “PEPITO”. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 3.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of Babuyan Islands Up to 2.0 m: The seaboards of mainland Cagayan; the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK OFEL has re-entered the PAR region at 10:00 PM today. It is forecast to move northwestward throughout the forecast period, traversing southern Taiwan and emerging over the sea east of Taiwan from tonight until tomorrow (16 November) evening. OFEL is forecast to further weaken due to the increasingly unfavorable environment and interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan, possibly downgrading into a remnant Low on Sunday (17 November) evening or earlier.

Tropical Cyclone Alert : Tropical Storm Ofel (USAGI) “OFEL” HAS FURTHER WEAKENED WHILE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE SEA WEST OF TAIWAN. Location of eye/center : The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data at 240 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes (22.2, 120.1). Strength : Maximum winds of 75 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 90 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move North Northeastward at Slowly kph Forecast position : Nov 16, 2024 02:00 PM - 240 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Pingtung County, Taiwan Nov 17, 2024 02:00 AM - 290 km North of Itbayat, Batanes HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook   Tropical Storm OFEL is not expected to bring significant rainfall in any part of the country. However, Weather Advisory No. 41 has been issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “PEPITO”. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 3.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of Babuyan Islands Up to 2.0 m: The northern seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Ilocos Norte Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK OFEL is forecast to move northeastward today, traversing southern Taiwan and emerging over the sea east of Taiwan by tomorrow (17 November) early morning. OFEL is forecast to further weaken due to the increasingly unfavorable environment and interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan, possibly downgrading into a remnant Low tomorrow or earlier.

Tropical Cyclone Warning : Typhoon Pepito (MAN-YI) TYPHOON “PEPITO” FURTHER INTENSIFIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF EASTERN VISAYAS. Location of eye/center : The center of the eye was estimated based on all available data at 305 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (11.5, 128.5). Strength : Maximum winds of 155 kph near the centerand gustiness of up to 190 kph. Forecast movement : Forecast to move West Northwestward at 25 kph Forecast position : Nov 16, 2024 08:00 AM - 225 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Pingtung County, Taiwan Nov 16, 2024 08:00 PM - 235 km North Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes or in the vicinity of Taitung County, Taiwan Nov 17, 2024 08:00 AM - 280 km North of Itbayat, Batanes Nov 17, 2024 08:00 PM - 365 km North Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS Heavy Rainfall Outlook   Refer to Weather Advisory No. 39 issued at 11:00 PM today for three-day heavy rainfall outlook associated with “PEPITO”   Severe Winds   The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.   Minor to moderate impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2. Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.   The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of PEPITO is Wind Signal No. 5. Coastal Inundation   There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 3.0 m above mean sea level in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Batangas, Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, and Leyte. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 4 issued at 8:00 PM today for the details. HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Visayas. Refer to Gale Warning No. 9A issued at 11:00 PM today for the details. 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook   Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Catanduanes. Up to 8.0 m: The eastern seaboard of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar. Up to 5.5 m: the eastern seaboard of Camarines Sur. Up to 4.5 m: The northern seaboard of Camarines Sur. Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside. Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 4.0 m: The eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Surigao del Sur and Siargao Islands Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, Isabela, Aurora, and northern mainland Quezon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and Davao Oriental; the remaining seaboard of Northern Samar. Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels. Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters: Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Eastern Samar and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern seaboard of Dinagat Islands; the eastern seaboard of Leyte; the southern seaboard of Samar. Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte including the rest of Siargao Islands; the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, and Leyte; the seaboards of Samar and Biliran; the eastern seaboard of Southern Leyte and Quezon including the rest of Polillo Islands. Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions. TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next three days before turning generally westward to west southwestward from Monday (18 November) evening to Wednesday (20 November) evening. On the track forecast, PEPITO is more likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tomorrow (16 November) evening or on Sunday (17 November) early morning. However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Albay, or Sorsogon during the same time frame, over the eastern coast of Northern Samar tomorrow afternoon or evening, or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora on Sunday afternoon or evening remains not ruled out. PEPITO is expected to exit the PAR region on Monday. Regardless of the landfall point, PEPITO will more likely move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or near the landmass of Bicol Region, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and Pangasinan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening or Monday morning. It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details.  Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. PEPITO will continue to rapidly intensify today through tomorrow and may reach super typhoon category prior to its landfall tomorrow evening or on Sunday early morning. Although a slight weakening may occur after its initial passage over land, much of the weakening will occur on Sunday as PEPITO passes over landmass of Central Luzon. Nevertheless, it will traverse the country as a typhoon and will likely be downgraded into a severe tropical storm once it is over the West Philippine Sea on Monday.